Roughly 10 in 100 people with none of the risk factors below will develop type 2 diabetes over a lifetime. Each factor changes that number. The tables below group the known factors by category. This is a general guide, not a personal prediction, for an individual estimate use the QDiabetes tool.
Not a single figure, reflects years of accumulated exposure to the other factors below
High
Ethnicity
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
South Asian ethnicity (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan or other South Asian background)
About 20 to 22 in 100
High
Black or African Caribbean ethnicity
About 13 in 100
High
Sex
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
Male
Tends to develop at a younger age and lower BMI than in women
High
Female
Additional risk pathways, PCOS and gestational diabetes history
High
Genetics
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
Family history, 2 or more close relatives
About 33 in 100
High
Family history, 1 close relative
About 15 to 20 in 100
High
Overall heritability
About 72% of the difference in risk between individuals is genetic
High
Socio Economic Status
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
Low education level (did not continue education beyond secondary school)
About 14 in 100
High
Low household income
About 13 in 100
High
Living in a deprived area
About 16 to 24 in 100
Moderate to high
Lifestyle
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
Very inactive
About 20 in 100
Moderate to high
Sedentary work, mostly sitting during working hours
Included within inactivity risk above, listed separately as it is often overlooked
Moderate to high
Heavy smoking
About 16 in 100
High
Poor sleep quality
About 15 in 100
Moderate
Diet high in ultra processed food
About 15 in 100
Moderate to high
Any current smoking
About 14 in 100
High
Short sleep, under 6 hours
About 13 in 100
Moderate
Regular sugary drinks
About 13 in 100
High
Clinical And Reproductive History
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
PCOS
About 34 in 100
High
History of gestational diabetes (diabetes diagnosed during pregnancy, usually resolving after birth)
About 30 in 100
High
Moderate to severe untreated sleep apnoea
About 16 in 100
Moderate
Metabolic Trait
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
Obesity, BMI above 35
About 70 in 100
High
Overweight, not yet obese
About 30 in 100
High
Environmental Exposure
Individuals are often surprised that chemicals in everyday plastics and industrial processes carry a measurable link to diabetes risk. Two groups matter most.
Industrial pollutants. This mainly means dioxins, PCBs, and pesticides, a group of substances often called persistent organic pollutants because they build up in fatty tissue over years rather than being cleared quickly by the body. Common sources include:
Work in factories, chemical plants, or waste processing
Agricultural or occupational pesticide exposure, including farming and pest control work
Living close to heavy industry or a waste site
Eating contaminated fish, meat, or dairy, since these pollutants build up through the food chain
BPA, short for Bisphenol A. This is a chemical used to make certain plastics and the internal lining of food and drink cans. It is what is known as an endocrine disruptor, meaning it can interfere with the body’s hormone signalling, including insulin. Common sources include:
Food or drink from tins, cans, or certain plastic bottles
Microwaving or heating food in plastic containers
Handling till or receipt paper regularly, common in retail or hospitality work
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
High exposure to industrial pollutants
About 19 to 20 in 100
Moderate
High BPA exposure
About 15 in 100
Moderate
Simple, practical steps that reduce exposure include choosing fresh or frozen food over tinned where possible, avoiding microwaving food in plastic, and washing hands after handling receipts. The evidence here is still developing, so this is a moderate confidence factor, not a proven direct cause on its own.
Psychosocial
Risk Factor
In Plain Terms
Confidence
Ongoing high strain job (high demands with little control over how or when the work is done, e.g. tight deadlines, shift work, or limited say in your own workload)
About 12 to 13 in 100
Low to moderate
General chronic stress
Signal weakens after adjusting for related health behaviours
Low
The biggest single factors are weight, genetics, and clinical history. Lifestyle and environmental factors matter, but individually they carry a more modest effect.
